World Cup 2026 – My Predictions

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is fast approaching … and I have a feeling it might be the worst one yet. Many factors, like political unrest and the fact there’s 48 teams instead of 32 (making the schedule quite bloated) may land this tournament a place in football infamy.

That being said, people were worried about the World Cups in Russia and Qatar but those ended up being good. For a bit of fun I’ll try to predict each stage of the 2026 World Cup as well as the overall winners. Wish me luck!

Before we begin, you can check out some of my related blog posts below:

Every Puskas Award Winner Ranked

2022 World Cup – Predictions

2022 World Cup – Every Nation’s Tournament Ranked

Champions League 21/22 – Who Will Win?

GROUP STAGE

For the first time in World Cup history, there are 48 teams taking part – 12 groups of four. That’s a lot of games to predict … But, weirdly, I found it easier to predict the top two of each group this time. There are a lot of weak teams who are almost guaranteed to finish last.

Another strange feature of this World Cup is that out of the 12 possible third-place teams, 8 of them will go through to the next round (based on who did the best / got the most points). I’ve marked which teams I think will qualify this way by giving them **asterisks**.

GROUP A
1	Mexico
2	South Korea
3	**Czech Republic**
4	South Africa

The first of the host nation groups, and I see Mexico cruising through based on home turf advantage alone. That’s not to say South Korea won’t give them a run for their money, though – I can see the first and second places being swapped quite easily.

As for the other two places, I think South Africa will comfortably finish last. Possibly on zero points. That should give Czech Republic enough points to go through in third.

GROUP B
1	Switzerland
2	Bosnia-Herzegovina
3	**Canada**
4	Qatar

Canada, on the other hand, will not be as strong a home nation. They’ll almost definitely beat Qatar but that’ll be the only points they get.

It’ll be a tight race between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Switzerland for first place, and I’m sure Bosnia-Herzegovina will be riding high after knocking out the mighty Italy in qualifying, but Switzerland’s rigidity will see them through as group winners.

GROUP C
1	Brazil
2	Morocco
3	**Scotland**
4	Haiti

Group C is weirdly one of the strongest groups in the tournament. I can almost guarantee that Haiti will finish bottom on 0 points and Brazil will finish top with at least 7, but it’s up in the air after that.

Scotland have been remarkably solid with talisman Scott McTominay, but I think Morocco will beat them to second. Scotland should hopefully get the three points against Haiti, though, giving them enough of a boost to reach the next stage.

GROUP D
1	Turkey
2	USA
3	Paraguay
4	Australia

USA are the third home nation team, and I think they have the easiest group of the three. I still don’t think they’ll top the group, though – Turkey have always been Dark Horses in tournaments like these.

Australia will almost definitely finish last, but them and Paraguay might be joint-losers on one point each (meaning neither will qualify for the Knockout Stages).

GROUP E
1	Germany
2	Ecuador
3	**Ivory Coast**
4	Curacao

If Germany don’t finish top of this group I’d be amazed. They’ve struggled in recent tournaments but that should be no excuse – they should easily get 9 points and cruise into the next round.

On the other end of the spectrum, I don’t think Curacao will get a single point. Ecuador and Ivory coast will fight for second, but both will get through to the Knockout Stages.

GROUP F
1	Japan
2	Netherlands
3	**Sweden**
4	Tunisia

This is a group that will get slept on until the World Cup begins. I’m sure a lot of people would put Netherlands through as group winners, but I don’t think that’ll be the case.

This could be the tightest group of the whole tournament. Japan and Netherlands will come out on top, whilst Sweden will just about squeak through.

GROUP G
1	Belgium
2	Egypt
3	New Zealand
4	Iran

As of writing, I’m not even sure if Iran will take part in the tournament. I’m going to assume they will be there … and I’m going to assume they’ll crash out of the Group Stages.

They’ll draw to New Zealand and both will go home early, whereas Belgium and Egypt will go through. Belgium will probably get 9 points – this is quite an easy group for them, all things considered.

GROUP H
1	Spain
2	Uruguay
3	Saudi Arabia
4	Cape Verde

If Spain and Uruguay don’t finish in the top two and Saudi Arabia / Cape Verde in the bottom two, I’ll be stunned. This is one of the largest gulfs in quality between teams in any group.

Spain are one of the favourites to win the whole thing, but don’t sleep on Uruguay – they’re a solid outfit and I reckon they’ll go further in this tournament than people expect.

GROUP I
1	Norway
2	France
3	**Senegal**
4	Iraq

I don’t think there’ll be any major shocks / early exits in this Group Stage (especially since coming third almost definitely guarantees a place in the next round …) but I think the biggest upset will be Norway pipping France to top spot in Group I.

France will definitely go through, however, and Iraq will definitely go home. That just leaves Senegal, the current-except-not-really AFCON winners, going through as comfortable thirds.

GROUP J
1	Argentina
2	Algeria
3	**Austria**
4	Jordan

This is an easy group to predict. Argentina top, Algeria and Austria also through, Jordan going home. The only way this could go any other way is if Argentina, the current holders, can’t be bothered to show up.

GROUP K
1	Colombia
2	Portugal
3	DR Congo
4	Uzbekistan

Like Group H with Spain and Uruguay, there’s an enormous gap in quality between these four teams in Group K.

If Colombia and Portugal don’t make it through they should be ashamed – DR Congo and Uzbekistan are two of the weakest teams in the whole tournament.

The only weird thing that might happen is Colombia beating Portugal and claiming first place, but that’s not going to change much in the grand scheme of things.

GROUP L
1	England
2	Croatia
3	**Ghana**
4	Panama

And finally we reach the most important group in the whole Group Stages, because it has my beloved England in it.

I’d be shocked if they didn’t win the group. Hopefully on 9 points, but we usually get a weird 0-0 draw against a team – maybe Ghana this time. Croatia and Ghana should also make it, whereas Panama are too weak to go through.

KNOCKOUT STAGE

Round Of 32

The 2026 World Cup will be the first time we’ll see a “Round Of 32” in the tournament. There are a lot of games to get through (generated based on how my Group Stage played out), so I’ll list all the potential results and talk about any highlights / shocks:

Match	Winner
South Korea – Bosnia-Herzegovina	Bosnia-Herzegovina
Germany – Scotland	Germany
Japan – Morocco	Morocco
Brazil – Netherlands	Brazil
Norway – Sweden	Norway
Ecuador – France	France
Mexico – Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast
England – Senegal	England
Turkey – Canada	Turkey
Belgium – Czech Republic	Belgium
Portugal – Croatia	Portugal
Spain – Algeria	Spain
Switzerland – Austria	Switzerland
Argentina – Uruguay	Uruguay
Colombia – Ghana	Colombia
USA – Egypt	USA

Germany-Scotland should be a good game, and I can definitely foresee a universe where Scotland pull off a major upset. In the end, Germany will just be too solid for them.

One of the biggest games of this round is Brazil-Netherlands, and I could see it going either way. That being said, Brazil are going into this tournament as potential winners, whereas Netherlands are just there to get as far as possible. Brazil’s flair should see them through.

I see two of the host nations going home – Mexico will lose in a shock result to Ivory Coast, and Canada will fall to Turkey. USA, however, will beat Egypt to keep the “home nation’s” hopes alive.

The final, biggest shock of the Round Of 32 will be a huge game – Argentina-Uruguay. This is a tasty South American grudge match, and I think the reigning champions will take their foot off the gas and lose 1-0. Messi and co. have already won their trophy, so I’m sure they won’t feel too hard-done by.

Round Of 16

Match	Winner
Germany – Norway	Norway
Bosnia-Herzegovina – Morocco	Morocco
Brazil – France	France
Ivory Coast – England	England
Portugal – Spain	Spain
Turkey – Belgium	Belgium
Uruguay – USA	Uruguay
Switzerland – Colombia	Colombia

I can see a lot of stories coming to an end in the Round Of 16. Ronaldo’s Portugal, for example, will lose to Spain in a testy affair, whereas home nation USA will lose to a rigid Uruguay team.

Two teams that I predict will go further than people expect are Morocco and Norway. Morocco should beat Bosnia-Herzegovina with the squad they have, but Norway’s win over Germany will come as quite the shock. I just think that Norway will be a more solid, more lethal team than people expect.

The biggest matchup of the round is without a doubt Brazil-France, which could have easily been the final. While Brazil are always a favourite in any World Cup, I think Mbappe’s France will be too ruthless for them. Should be a cracking game.

Quarter Finals

Match	Winner
Norway – Morocco	Norway
Spain – Belgium	Spain
France – England	France
Uruguay – Colombia	Uruguay

I’ve set up four big games in my Quarter Finals simulation, and I think all four of them will be some of the best World Cup games of all time.

I’ll start with Norway-Morocco, as that is possibly the hardest of the four to predict. Morocco did an incredible job in the last World Cup, and I can see them going as far as the Semi Finals again, but Haaland and Norway are going to play with a fire we’ve rarely seen before. They’ll win in a cracking 3-2 game.

Spain-Belgium, on the other hand, is probably the easiest and most boring game of the four to predict. This is the best Spain team since 2010 and the worst Belgium team in a while … so yeah. Spain should win this comfortably, barring any unwanted surprises. I’m thinking 3 or 4-0. Sorry, Belgium.

It’s time for a repeat of the 2022 Quarter Final with France-England … and I think it’ll be exactly the same outcome. My home nation will put too much faith in the boys and we’ll be disappointed as a result. France will win, but it might have to go to penalties this time. Let’s say 2-2 and one of the most exciting games of the tournament.

My last Quarter Final, Uruguay-Colombia, will be the ugliest affair of the bunch – I’m talking red cards and one goal scored. Uruguay will win 1-0 thanks to a scrappy Valverde goal, putting them in their first Semi Final since 2010.

Semi Finals

Match	Winner
Norway – Spain	Spain
France – Uruguay	France

Two fairytale / “Dark Horse” runs are going to come to an end in these Semi Finals.

Let’s start with Norway-Spain, a tasty European affair. Erling Haaland is a real threat to any team, and I could see him scoring a goal or even two. Spain, however, have far too much talent across the board. They’ll end up winning the game 4-2 and secure their first World Cup Final since 2010, only the second in their history.

The other Semi Final, France-Uruguay, could be a lot closer. Uruguay will have the fighting spirit by this point in the tournament, and their players will genuinely believe they can go all the way. This might be a 1-1 draw, with France only going through on penalties. Like every other Uruguay game, it’ll be a feisty affair.

3rd Place: NORWAY – URUGUAY

Though they both don’t quite have what it takes to make it all the way to the Final, both Norway and Uruguay can be very satisfied knowing they made it to the final four (in my predictions, at the very least!).

That being said, one of them still has to beat the other and be 3rd Place. It’s always hard to predict how much effort teams put into this game – usually they just play their B team in order to give some of the younger players a World Cup game.

I’m predicting Uruguay as the team walking away with the bronze medals. It might be quite a dull game on the whole (I don’t know if Haaland would start, for example), so let’s say 2-0 Uruguay. A comfortable, cruise-control sort of victory.

3rd Place: URUGUAY

Final: SPAIN – FRANCE

Two European heavyweights will clash in the 2026 World Cup Final, and I reckon it’ll be a thrilling game. Maybe not as iconic as 2022’s Final, but an entertaining viewing experience nonetheless.

Spain are going into this tournament as one of the favourites thanks to their Euros 2024 victory, and they have some real talent in their squad – especially youngster Lamine Yamal. If Spain end up winning the trophy with him as the talisman, you can expect Yamal to win the Ballon D’Or.

Unfortunately for Spain, they’ll be coming up against one of the best international sides I’ve ever seen. This France team made the final of Euros 2016, won the World Cup in 2018, crashed out in Euros 2020 due to a freak result, got to the final of the 2022 World Cup (and could have won it on penalties in another universe), and then made a decent dent in the Euros 2024 tournament until their Semi Final loss to Spain.

Despite Spain’s victory over the French two years ago, I think this France team are just too OP in World Cups. They’ll win the final 3-1, and Mbappe will win player of the tournament … and maybe the Ballon D’Or as well.

Winner: FRANCE

AWARDS

Golden Boot: Erling Haaland

I’m predicting Norway to go far and score a decent number of goals, and there’s a good chance Erling Haaland will bag the vast majority of them. As a result, he’ll end the tournament with an impressive eight goals.

Golden Glove: Sergio Rochet

I don’t know who will be in net for Uruguay – it could also be Santiago Mele or Fernando Muslere between the sticks. Regardless of who they end up starting, I think Uruguay will concede very few goals in their run to the Semi Final.

The only way this won’t go to a Uruguayan goalkeeper is if they rotate between goalkeepers every game.

Player Of The Tournament: Kylian Mbappe

As I’ve predicted France to win the whole thing, it would make sense if the Player Of The Tournament award went to someone on the winning team. I don’t think Mbappe will score a crazy number of goals but he’ll almost definitely be France’s star man.

Dark Horse(s): Norway / Uruguay

I predicted both of these underdog teams to make the Semi Finals, so I thought they deserved to share my Dark Horse award.

If not one of these two, I can see Morocco going far again.

Underachiever(s): Argentina / Germany

I have Argentina going home in the Round Of 32 and Germany getting knocked out in the Round Of 16. Neither of those nations would be happy with those results.

Best Game: France – England (QF)

I think the game that knocks England out will be a corker. It’ll be edge-of-your-seat stuff, end-to-end football, and the better team will win on the day.

Aaaand that’s my list! If you liked this post and want to support me, please consider giving me a one-time donation. Even a few pence (or whatever currency you use) is fantastic! I’ve never monetized this blog before, but it would be great if I could do this comfortably and not have to worry about the yearly website domain costs. Thank you so much!